Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Government closures have become a recurring feature in American political life – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave as both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time because both parties – as well as the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions for the poor, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, they see potential
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader from the majority party, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges against their counterparts, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the representative appears wearing a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.
The representative with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity tied to business cease functioning.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.